Big Brother All-Stars

Wow, what a premiere to the best realty game show on television. I'd like to point out that out of 14 house guests I was able to accurately predict 11 of them. The ones I missed on? Dr. Will, Mike Boogie, and Chicken George. Basically everyone prior to BB3, which makes sense since I didn't start watching the show until BB3, and didn't start to study it until BB4. Anyway, after watching the first episode, I might not have loved everybody who got picked, but they were the right combination of people to put into the house. Here's a rundown of thoughts/predictions from last night's show:

1. Did Danielle overplay her hand?
Yes, Janey was right in calling out Danielle in the first week. She didn't have the support of even some kind of basic alliance to force her insane idea of getting Jase to disagree with Janelle on purpose. Her plan made a lot of sense for everyone EXCEPT the people who were HOH. I think Danielle needs to adjust her game plan quickly to survive in the new house. She isn't surrounded by weak individuals who she can control, and she DEFINITELY does not have a trump card like Will to force the action. Best case scenario for Danielle is to win veto this week, take herself off the block, and make amends to the BB6 crew, and maybe she'll last longer than it seems right now. Most likely scenario? Someone else wins veto, and its lights out of the Countdown Girl.

2. What does Allison think she is doing?
I have no idea. It seems to me like she is trying to establish the same kind of game plan that she followed in her Big Brother. Her weakness? She is probably one of the uglier girls in this show, and her ability to manipulate the guys is severely hindered by previous loyalties. The only guy she can count of twisting to her will is probably Will and maybe Mike Boogie. Which leads us to the following question.

3. What do the preliminary alliances look like?
After only one episode it is pretty surprising to see alliances forming quite quickly. Of course going in you would expect the BB6 people to stick together if for no other reason than the fact that 3 out 4 of them were in an alliance last summer. So the first natural alliance that I see is: Kaysar, Janelle, Howie, and James

Now 4 out of 14 isn't going to do much in general, and the fact that they are all from BB6 probably puts a big target on their backs, so they will definitely need backup. There are some pretty obvious choices for the BB6 alliance to look for support with:
1. Marcellus (No question that he teams like the BB6 crew this week to try and eliminate his nemesis Danielle. I think Marcellus will continue to cast his lot with the BB6 members just because he has no other natural allies. The only other person from his season is also his mortal enemy, so he is probably the first one to look outside for a group to join with. Plus, Marcellus actually appears to be bitchier in this incarnation than he was in his BB, which means this summer will be great.)
2. Erika (By putting up Allison the first week, Erika is now firmly on Janelle's side, or at least I think so. Its clear there is still animosity between Erika and Allison, and if you look at all the women in the house, Erika's most likely to want to align herself with Janey considering the way they look and how they've been treated by the other women in the house in their previous forays in Big Brother.)

So with the above the BB6 crew is looking at a power base of about 6 solid votes, which means that they will need to recruit one more vote to ensure a balance of power, and 2 more to achieve hegemony.

So, who's on the other side of the power chasm? Allison, Will, Mike Boogie, and Danielle. Just based on their initial dislike of the BB6 crew, and the fact that they are not well liked right off the bat. Its like the villian crew in a comic book, all of the prior seasons great villians (too bad Crappy didn't make the cut) will get together if for no other reason that self preservation.

4. Who are the wild cards?
Jase, Diane, Nikomous, Chicken George hold the balance of power in the house right now. They are kind of a mini alliance as is except Diane and Nickomous hate Jase, which is why I didn't want to show this group as an alliance unto itself. Most likely scenario based on early returns? Chicken George is going to follow the power. He may be a goofy bastard, but I think he is quickly realizing that putting himself with the numbers means safety and a longer stay than anyone would have anticipated. He is in the perfect position to play the under the radar game. Perhaps the minnow beats the sharks this season cause the sharks are too busy killing each other.

Diane is going to lean towards the Will/Mike Boogie crew because she will definitely fall under the sway of Dr. Will, and clearly she dislikes Janey and Erika. This is an obvious mistake on her part since I think with the villian crew there will tear each other apart to stay in the game, and there is no way you could trust anyone of those guys. Big Brother is one of those games that is hard to win if you can't trust anyone since you can't win every single competition.

Nickomous is hard to read at this point. I really can't see her liking either groups, so she is the ultimate wild card. I think she votes with the majority until some more concrete opportunities present themselves. She will definitely be a second half player, but right now I really can't see which way she goes just because of who the people are on each team. If I had to guess I would say she teams with Marcellous which means that she leans BB6 for now, but in the streach run I think her, Marcellous, Jase, Chicken George, and Erika lower the boom on the BB6 and the Villians.

Jase is had to gauge, I think he is in the best position to play both sides which he should continue to do until he can eliminate the villian alliance, and then strike with a firming up of a secondary alliance against the BB6 crew. Right now I think he votes with BB6 and friends just to avoid making waves, and he will sit back and watch where the chips fall.

3. What's the dominant gameplan for this season?
I think this version of BB is going to be awesome, but will differ from the game that we saw in seasons prior to BB6. Obviously, alliances are going to be very important and very air tight in the first few weeks, which would be very similar to last season. The biggest difference? There are no sheep in the house this year. Everyone is a strong personality and everyone knows how to play the game. I really can't see a dominant schemer/dictator (Maggie, Danielle, Will, Allison, etc) raise to a permanent power position just because everyone in the house knows that letting someone get power like that is just trouble for everyone. I think the first half of the show (the first 5-6 eliminations) play out obiviously, but then the real back stabbing begins with James, Jase, and Nikomous leading the pack.